If you think Syrian rebels are only a tool of Israel and the USA,
If you think that Russia and Israel are enemies,
If you-think that Assad and Iran were the brave “Axis of Resistance to Israel” and that you cannot support Palestinian people AND Syrian people,
If you think that it’s a matter of Black or White and Block against Block,
If you think that the Syrians weren’t uniting all together to throw down one of the most horrendous and genocidal regimes in the world,
READ OUR FOLLOWING ANALYSIS:
1. TURKEY
Erdogan wanted -to occupy and expel the Kurds from-all Syrian territory above the M4 road, and continue to supply Israel with 30% of its oil via the BTC pipeline.
We believe that Turkey needed an armed force, the Syrian National Army (SNA) made up of docile Islamist and foreign mercenaries to carry-out its colonial and ethnic cleansing plans north of the M4 road, while another armed force made up of Syrian rebels motivated by the liberation of their country, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) provided a diversion to the south.
We also ‘believe that Turkey was not particularly interested in-what the Syrian rebels would do south of Aleppo, and was potentially surprised by the weakness and rout of the Syrian army, the speed with which the rebels reconquered western and southern Syria, but also the massive support for the offensive from the rebels in Suwayda and Deraa.
After the third day of offensive, Erdogan called Assad and the rebels to find a settlement.
2. ISRAEL
Netanyahu needed Turkey-to continue providing 30% of its oil to continue-the genocide of Palestinians.
Israel wanted also to drive Hezbollah and pro-lranian militias out of all Syria and protect its northern borders, i.e., the stolen Syrian Golan lands, by establishing a buffer zone on Syrian soil.
We think Israel has no interest in waging a war into Syria and won’t get any support for this. Furthermore, Israel is facing a huge economic, social and political crisis that would not be helped by opening a new front of war.
Israel’s targeting of all Syrian military zones and arms depots immediately after the fall of Assad demonstrates that Israel did not feel threatened by the Assad regime: Israel-had never bombed the Syrian army before, but only Hezbollah officials in Syria.
Israeli intelligence officers declared the past week that they need Assad to maintain the status quo guaranteeing the security of Israel.
3. RUSSIA
Putin and Assad had made agreements with Israel in 2016 to guarantee the security of Israel’s. northern border and keep Hezbollah away from it. By 2018, the Russians had established control over the Deraa region by integrating former rebels into its 5th ‘Army Corps (8th Awda Battalion).
Russia and the USA had made agreements back in 2015 as part of the “deconfliction line” allowing them both to use Syrian skies to carry out their attacks against ISIS without their aircraft colliding.
Russia has been considerably weakened by the war in Ukraine since 2022 and had substantially reduced its presence in Syria. The relentless bombardment of the rebel zone of Idleb and the energies deployed to keep the feckless Assad regime in place since 2015 were no longer worth the effort.
Russia actively engaged with Turkey and the UN in the Astana agreements to get out of Syria without being humiliated.
4. THE USA
After the 2011 revolution and the-takeover of ISIS in 2013, USA wanted to-gain and retain control of the areas east of the Euphrates (Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakeh) where 75% of Syria’s oil reserves are -located*, without engaging American troops on the Syrian soil and without supporting Kurdish socialist YPG/PYD affiliated to the PKK.
Thus, the US backed and trained the Syrian Democratic Forces (FDS) to repel ISIS and keep. the East of Syria out of Assad-or Iranian control.
The US also kept a military base on Syrian soil (al-Tanf) that was never threatened by Assad, and never a threat for Assad. The Americans NEVER attacked the Syrian army.
Russia and the USA had made agreements back in 2015 as part-of the “deconfliction line” allowing them both to use Syrian skies to carry out their attacks against the Islamic State without their aircraft colliding. The US Command Center is located at Al-Ubaid in Qatar.
Also, after the USA gave carte blanche to Turkey to bomb the Kurds in 2019, SDF began to look towards Russia…
5. IRAN
Iran has been Syria’s ally since the Lebanon war (1982) and needed Syrian territory as a lifeline to supply its Hezbollah militia with arms and money. Iran controlled the entire road network linking Iraq to Lebanon, and in particular the Bukamal and Al-Qusair crossing points, as well as the key area of Palmyra and the right bank of the Euphrates.
In return for the support of Iran and its Lebanese, Iraqi, Pakistani and Afghan militias, Assad allowed Iran to build commercial links-inside Syria, transforming it into a giant captagon factory and the Syrian regime into a narco-state, headed by his brother Maher.
After Israel had destroyed Hezbollah’s infrastructure and worn down its forces in Syria, Iran no longer had any interest in supporting the Assad regime and risking the destruction of its Iraqi militias in a confrontation with the Syrian rebels. It therefore preferred to fall back-on controlling Iraq. In addition, Iran was also involved in the Astana process with Turkey and Russia.
6. THE SYRIAN NON-STATE OPPOSITION ARMED GROUPS
HTS have clearly entered negotiations with the YPG/SDF on the outskirts of Aleppo from the first days of the offensive, and the Sheikh Maqsood and Ashrafiye neighborhoods are still under YPG/SDF control. Moreover, their desire to protect religious minorities is not just a statement: there are no reports of HTS persecuting civilians since November 27th, and Syrian communities are welcoming the offensive, even if many people also worry about the coming weeks. HTS immediately opened the prisons and restored the water and electricity services that had been cut off and rationed for years by the regime, allowing foreign journalists into the country for the first time in decades. Moreover, HTS’s leader Al Joulani, who has severed his ties with al-Qaeda and has been in conflict with the SNA for several years, declared before the end of the offensive that he plans to dissolve the HTS and to leave the governance of Syria to a transition authority made from a coalition of groups representing the diversity of Syrian society.
Meanwhile, the turkey-backed SNA are indeed organizing the ethnic cleansing of northern Syria, with the aim of carrying out Erdogan’s plans. This aim is obviously not the liberation of the Syrians, and the conquest of the Tall Rif’at and Manbij districts, as well as the ongoing aggression in the Ayn al-Arab/Kobane district with the help of the Turkish air force, is associated with number of abuses and crimes against Kurdish civilian populations. Moreover, the most radical elements of the jihadist groups are affiliated to SNA, making it a major threat to the future stability of the whole of Syria.
Regarding the SDF, we think their compromises with the US on one hand and with the Assad regime and Russia on the other hand, but also their disrespect for Arab communities’ customs and demands in many regards (in Manbij, in Deir ez-Zor and other parts of Jazira/Rojava region) made them too unpopular to gain sympathy from other Syrians. Even so, it’s not fair to consider them allies of the Assad regime, their main concerns since 2015 having been to protect themselves from the serious risks of genocide represented by ISIS and to defend their autonomy, itself seen as a means of separating and protecting themselves from Assad’s dictatorial central power. Thus, SDF and Kurdish communities should enter into negotiations with the Syrian transitional authority to retain their autonomy, while proposing to be integrated into a new federal-type system enabling them to benefit from the same rights and guarantees as other Syrians.
There are many other rebel groups who took part in the HTS offensive but are not affiliated to HTS. This is notably the case of the Druze of Rijal al-Karami from the Suwayda district, who have resisted the central power since 2011 and massively obstructed the recruitment of 50,000 young Druze by the regime’s army, refusing to go and kill other Syrians. Over the past few years, Rijal al-Karami has been engaged in an uphill battle against criminal gangs affiliated to Maher al-Assad’s 4th Armored Division and Hezbollah, who have developed a number of trafficking operations in the Suwayda region that enable the regime to replenish its coffers, in particular that of captagon.
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If, after reading this analysis, you still think that the Syrians were incapable of liberating themselves on their own and without foreign intervention, and that you support Assad and Hezbollah because you think they are in solidarity with the Palestinians, read our article addressed to the Western campist left following this link: https://interstices-fajawat.org/western-leftist-comrades-you-failed-your-arab-fellows/